Posted by
Andrews on Thursday, July 30, 2009 11:09:56 AM
In response to my post "
Obama on Life Support",
ApolloSpeaks made the very correct observation that Obama is not quite there yet, but is clearly heading south. However, what that comment misses, though technically correct, is that in politics perception is reality, and once one is seen as bound for the ash heap, support will begin to evaporate. That the whiff of failure is enough to create a self-fulfilling prophecy as supporters jump ship to avoid being associated with a lost cause.
The best example may be the delays on pushing through health care and cap and trade. Though these two are "urgent" according to Obama and are clearly pet projects close to his heart, he has allowed them to languish. And it is not in hopes of building support. As was pointed out in an article I mentioned in "
An Important Observation", bills which sit around for a time tend to lose support rather than gain, so waiting is hardly a recipe for success.
So, why is he delaying?
Probably not for the reason you expect me to claim. I doubt they would lose. Perhaps health care, but not cap and trade. No, the reason is that cap and trade would pass, but with a more narrow margin than past Obama initiatives. And that would spell doom for Obama. You see, his popularity is already dropping, and that is scaring supporters. The House as a whole is up for reelection next year, and being seen as the rubber stamp of an unpopular president is a sure way to lose one's seat. So they are watching carefully for signs indicating they should sever ties with the White House. Should cap and trade pass with only lukewarm support that will be such a sign. Once that happens, coming on the heels of bad poll numbers, it would be the sign for a mass exodus from the Obama camp, at least for the blue dogs, and probably for more moderate Democrats as well. A few from safe seats may stay on board to get even more concessions in the next bailout or budget, but most would quickly take the hint and begin asking a lot of tough questions the next time the president proposes a bit of legislation.
And so, Obama delays. Not because he thinks it will build support, but because he hopes his constant campaign may turn the polls, restore some of that early support, and stop the tide. And if he can rebuild popular support, mainly by doing nothing political while trying to charm the public, then he might be able to find enough votes to pass his bills.
But I don't see it. In this environment, after passing a massive bailout and budget, doing nothing is very risky. If he does nothing and the economy stays the same or worsens, then he will be blamed, as his huge spending did not do what was predicted. The only hope he has, and it is a slim one, is that he does nothing, charms the public, and the economy mysteriously fixes itself. Only then could he have any hope of riding out this drop in the polls.
Under any other circumstances his current trend will continue, and Obama will find himself after four years where Bush was after eight. Maybe not as reviled in the press, and not caricatured as an idiot, but otherwise no better off than our last president.
POSTSCRIPT
By the way, nothing here should be taken to be critical of ApolloSpeaks or his comment. What he wrote was absolutely correct, in the way I wrote it I did overstate my case. I am only writing this to clarify my argument. His original comment was completely right.
Correction (08/01/2009): In the original version I said that Congress as a whole was up for reelection. Clearly I meant that the House was up for reelection, only a third of the Senate faces reelection. I have corrected the text, bit thought I should add a note for those who read the earlier version.