Posted by
Andrews on Monday, August 24, 2009 4:42:39 PM
I know it is unseemly to crow over my prognostications coming true, so just call me unseemly!
Today's Best of the Web has the following opening lines:
The Angry Left is angry at the president of the United States. That makes it official. Nothing changed when Barack Obama became president.
"A backlash in the progressive base--which pushed President Obama
over the top in the Democratic primary and played a major role in his
general election victory--has been building for months," writes former
Enron adviser Paul Krugman,
the Angry Left's tribune, in the New York Times. Krugman faults the
Obama administration for being insufficiently tender to terrorists and
not harsh enough with bankers--but it's clear that what's brought the
anger to the surface is the political failure of ObamaCare:
What amuses me is that this fits well with the reason I thought Obama would lose the election("
The Obama Hangover"). To wit:
Appealing to the center will not be as easy for Obama as his primary
run. The independents are, by and large, not as angry with Bush as the
Democrats. They may be disappointed, but they are not so enraged that
they are looking for a savior. Without anti-Bush anger as a catalyst, I
don't think Obama will be able to infuse the middle of the road voters
with his Obamania. Without the option of winning votes by being
everything to everybody, Obama will need to actually sell himself,
taking stands on issues and convincing the voters.
And that is where Obama is likely to falter. As I also said, a big part
of his ability to create such a fanatical following was his ability to
say nothing, allowing his followers to see in him whatever they wanted.
If the general election forces him to take a stand, not only will his
far left politics alienate much of the independent vote, but just by
virtue of taking a stand he risks alienating some of those who are now
his most ardent followers. Once they are confronted with a flesh and
blood politician, who takes stands and sometimes does not agree with
them, the love affair will end, the Obama bliss will fade, and they
will be left with nothing but a young, eloquent, but extremely
left-wing candidate. In short, they will realize they are stuck with a
slightly better looking, slightly more eloquent John Edwards.
Later, I developed this a bit more, including the possibility that has come to pass("
Why McCain Will Win"):
As I have said here, here, and here,
Obama's massive appeal depends on him taking either no stand, or every
possible stand, so that his followers can project their own opinions
upon him. That will not work with the independents. So, Obama will at
last be forced to take a stand. Whether he takes a far left stand, to
appeal to the bulk of his devout followers (and sacrifices many
centrists) or moves to the center, it will not matter. Once he has
taken a stand, he ceases to be that charismatic mirror, his followers
fall out of love, and we are left with just another left-leaning
candidate. His chances are slim once he has to appeal to anyone outside
of the Democrat base.
I admit my overall conclusion was wrong, mainly because I did not anticipate how badly McCain would fumble bad economic news, or how strongly the press would go in the tank for Obama (or how successful they would be in hiding Obama's many problems from the general public), but my analysis of Obama's woes seems to be right on the money, it only took a few more months to come to fruition than I anticipated. He managed to string along liberals and moderates for longer than I thought possible, which just shows that I gave them too much credit. Still, as far as predictions go, I am quite proud having anticipated this as long ago as February 2008.
POSTSCRIPT
For more recent predictions, check out "
Confirmation", "
ObamaCare on the Ropes?" and ""
Percpetion Is Reality"". The recent predictions go all the way back to "
Easy to Explain" and "
Is Obama a Figurehead?", but by following links in the newer articles, you should be able to see the whole series of predictions.