Posted by
Andrews on Friday, September 11, 2009 4:32:08 PM
I have written on this before, so I cannot say I am surprised that the Obama administration and several other players on the world stage have bought into the Iranian subterfuge. Still one would hope that major nations would be wiser than buying into the Iranian offer to "talk". Well, maybe not China, Russia and France, as they are effectively Iranian allies, as they were of Saddam's corrupt regime. But the rest
buying into these talks should know better.
Now, some will ask "what is wrong with talks?", and those who buy into the "limitless power of talk" school will definitely disagree with me, but the truth is, sometimes talks are dangerous.
How so?
Well, let us look at Iran. Our goal is to stop Iran form developing a nuclear weapons program. And, while we continue to pretend we believe that NIE that said Iran just wants peaceful nuclear power... to manufacture smiley face buttons and Hello Kitty door mats or something... and can't figure out how to turn their petroleum and natural gas into electricity... Though we pretend to believe that, between Iran's open belligerence and suggestive space program, it is pretty obvious Iran is aiming at not just nuclear weapons but a long range delivery system.
So, the two sides have conflicting goals. We want Iran to stop developing nuclear weapons, and they want to develop such weapons. In that circumstance, talks can only favor Iran, as while we talk they can continue developing weapons, meaning if they can talk long enough, they win by default. And so, by accepting such offers, we only help them reach their goals.
If we truly wanted to force them to stop, the solution is not talks, but ultimatum. We need to tell them they must stop developing weapons by a fixed date and open up to inspection or face serious consequences. It need not be invasion, with an unstable nation like Iran, the threat of effective blockade might be enough, especially as their internal sources of uranium are limited. A truly strong blockade could not only stop their research, but stir up enough discontent to cause serious internal turmoil.
Actually, the specifics of the ultimatum are less significant than the ultimatum itself. By telling them they only have so much time, and that letting that deadline pass will bring consequences, we put them on notice that they need to decide if they want to continue their research or not. What is not a viable solution is what we are doing, allowing them to string us along with the promise of talks, continually delaying until they can present to the world a finished nuclear weapon. That is the recipe for disaster.
Most shameful of all is that we should know all this. After all, we followed essentially the same foolish strategy with North Korea, allowing talks to drag on, punctuated with periodic attempts at bribery, only to discover they were not negotiating in good faith and had completed weapons despite their promises. Yet, with that experience, somehow we are still following the same course with yet another hostile nation.
I can't understand it.
POSTSCRIPT
My past writings on Iran can be found at the following locations:
I Don't Get It
Heads I Win, Tails You Lose
Another Thought On Iran
I Told You So
To Make It Very Simple
Idiots or Geniuses?
Blood for Oil
Quote of the Day
A Silly Question
Strange Double Standards
If A Republican Said It...
Does No One Learn History?
Cuba Anyone?
Uh... What He Said
Double Standard
Negotiating With A Murderer
The Carter Analogy
Amusingly Left Wing
A Few Thoughts on Greenwalds' Column
Our Friend Iran
The New Party Line
Deceptive Pickens Advertisement
Axis of Evil?
US Endorses Oppression
The End of Islamic Terrorism?
Interesting Comment
Can Everyone See It Now?
Iranian Weapons
Wait a Minute!
Amnesia
Obama Gets History Backwards
Iran's Assessment of Obama
Buy High, Sell Low, The Obama Way
Misunderstanding History
Comparing Bush and Obama -- Foreign Policy
Some Questions for Obama
Initial Thoughts on Iran
Some Thoughts on Iran
A Thought on Iran
Overly Optimistic
I See Why You Feel That Way --- But It Doesn't Matter
Swimming Against the Current
In addition, I wrote about the foolishness of relying too much on negotiation (and a variety of other foreign policy insanities) in the following:
Correlation vs. Causation
Food For Thought
A Hypothetical Situation
Negotiating With A Murderer
The Failure of Negotiation
Moral Equivalence
A Few Thoughts on Greenwalds' Column
Our Friend Iran
The New Party Line
US Endorses Oppression
The End of Islamic Terrorism?
Iranian Weapons
Amnesia
Obama Gets History Backwards
Iran's Assessment of Obama
Nuclear Disarmament and Gun Control
Buy High, Sell Low, The Obama Way
Foreign Policy
Misunderstanding History
Comparing Bush and Obama -- Foreign Policy
Glad The World Loves Us
Is Obama a Republican?
A Pet Peeve
A Hypothetical Situation II
War As Last Resort
Cigarettes, Sudan and Abortion
I know these are long lists, but as I haven't touched upon this topic recently, I figure it is a good time to remind readers of everything that has come before. It seems better to link all these old articles than waste a lot of time and effort repeating all the arguments I already made.