Posted by
Andrews on Sunday, September 20, 2009 2:48:16 AM
Israel must be quite grateful that Obama is so stubborn in pursuing ObamaCare.
When I heard about the upcoming meeting of Netanyahu and Abbas with Obama, I was a bit concerned, until I recalled the fiasco that is health care reform. That alone means that Netanyahu has no reason to bow to any demands the president might make.
Normally the president has a lot of influence over the course Israeli politics will take. Despite all the paranoid rants about the "Israel lobby", the control goes mostly in the opposite direction. Yes, the considerable Jewish vote in New York and California, two very large states, as well as the vocal Jewish community in entertainment and academia, does tend to mean the US will never completely cut off support for Israel, that is where Israeli "control" over the US stops. On the other hand, the US can pressure Israel to take steps contrary to its interest thanks tot he huge role US aid plays in Israeli defense, as well as the fact that the US is really Israel's only consistent ally and her single protector in a uniformly anti-Israel UN.
If you want proof, just look at Oslo. Israel had won. Arafat was in exile, the PLO was broken. Hezbollah was a minor threat on the northern border and Hammas was relatively weak. But Clinton, looking to build that all important "legacy" decided he wanted to "solve" a problem that had mostly gone away. So he needed two parties to negotiate. But as Israel had crushed most of the opposition, there was no one to fill the other chair.
So what did Clinton do? He revived Arafat, and with him, the defeated PLO. And Israel, because of the power the US has, let him. And worse, they even agreed to negotiate with a group they had defeated. Whenever anyone cries about the power of the Israel lobby, ask them to explain Oslo, Fatah and the second intifada. What all-powerful Israel Lobby would have allowed that if they had even an ounce of influence over the US?
But to return to my main point.
Israel normally is at the mercy of the sitting president, and so this meeting would normally be another arm-twisting session, forcing Israel to endanger herself needlessly to provide a presidential photo-op.
But fortunately for Israel, Obama is about as weak as Bush was in his last weeks in office. Having spent all his capital on a stimulus that failed, cap and trade that is stalled, and most of all n medical reform that appears destined to fail, Obama has no believable threats to use against Israel. Netanyahu knows Obama is not going to waste his political capital fighting with congress to reduce aid to Israel. Nor is he going to spend even a moment of air time trying to convince the public that Israel is being difficult. Obama has no political power to waste, especially on something as tangential to his policy interests as Israel.
So, while Obama would personally like to see a "two state solution" forced down Netanyahu's throat, and while it would probably please his wavering left-most constituency, I don't see it happening. Netanyahu is politically savvy enough to read the writing on the wall, and Obama's weakness is openly known, so I don't think Israel has much to fear from the upcoming meeting.
POSTSCRIPT
As I mention the Israel Lobby and Oslo, here is a list of many of my writings on Israel:
Correlation vs. Causation
A Hypothetical Situation
The Failure of Negotiation
Moral Equivalence
Just Angry
Those Darn Jews
Those Darn Jews Part 2
For Those Who Enjoy History
Sorry, But Jews Aren't the Problem
Best of the Web Imitates Me XVIII
The Zionist Conspiracy and Israel Lobby
Historical Accident
False Flag Theories and 9/11
A Pet Peeve
Another Pet Peeve
As should be clear, I am opposed to the madness of a "two state solution" and the stupidity of Israel surrendering real territory for empty promises. It has nothing to do with religion and everything to do with my belief we should not ask an ally to commit suicide.
Yes, I have religious reasons for supporting Israel, but if those were my sole motivation, I would say so. In reality, Israel has been a consistent ally in a part of the world where we have very few consistent allies. We are developing a few others now (eg. Bahrain, Kuwait, etc.), but Israel was for a long time our only friend, and to turn on her makes very little sense.
POSTSCRIPT II
As I linked to my Israel articles, I suppose I should also link to a few on the middle east in general:
I Don't Get It
Heads I Win, Tails You Lose
Another Thought On Iran
Food For Thought
I Told You So
To Make It Very Simple
Idiots or Geniuses?
Blood for Oil
Quote of the Day
A Silly Question
Strange Double Standards
If A Republican Said It...
Does No One Learn History?
Cuba Anyone?
Uh... What He Said
Double Standard
Negotiating With A Murderer
The Carter Analogy
Amusingly Left Wing
A Few Thoughts on Greenwalds' Column
Our Friend Iran
The New Party Line
Deceptive Pickens Advertisement
Axis of Evil?
US Endorses Oppression
The End of Islamic Terrorism?
Interesting Comment
Can Everyone See It Now?
Iranian Weapons
Wait a Minute!
Amnesia
Obama Gets History Backwards
Iran's Assessment of Obama
Nuclear Disarmament and Gun Control
Buy High, Sell Low, The Obama Way
Misunderstanding History
Comparing Bush and Obama -- Foreign Policy
Some Questions for Obama
Initial Thoughts on Iran
Some Thoughts on Iran
A Thought on Iran
Overly Optimistic
I See Why You Feel That Way --- But It Doesn't Matter
Cigarettes, Sudan and Abortion
Swimming Against the Current
Iran Gets What It Wants
There may be more than I included here, but they can be found using the links in the articles above.