Posted by
Andrews on Friday, November 06, 2009 3:29:18 PM
I have been writing a lot about the potential for a huge rift among the Democrats, and it appears that in the wake of recent losses it is coming to pass. However, the actual rift is, quite surprisingly, taking a form a bit different than I expected.
Back when Obama passed the $400 billion budget I postulated that he was being used as a figurehead by the Congress, that they were taking advantage of his ambitions to get him to push through their pet projects, attach his name and face tot hem to deflect blame form congress, and would then kick him aside when the public turned on him. At the time I predicted the split might come in early 2010.("
Is Obama a Figurehead?")
A little later I postulated that public discontent over medical reform, the continued bad economy and many other Obama initiatives would cause first the blue dogs, and then the rest of the congressional Democrats, to distance themselves from him prior to 2010 to save their seats. ("
Easy to Explain","
2010 and Health Care") I imagined, though I did not state, that a few safe, die hard Democrats might stand with him, but not many. My theory was that first the blue dogs would turn, and then, lacking a majority, and seeing the writing on the wall, the upper echelons of the party would turn on him, if for no other reason than to retain their majority and their ability to enact legislation.
Some readers disputed this, arguing that Democrats were such doctrinaire partisans that they would gladly lose their majority to enact certain measures. I doubted this for several reasons. First, because the Democrats, more than Republicans, seem to understand that to enact any agenda you need to be in office, even if it means some compromise. (See "
The Need for Discretion" and "
Think of the Impresison You Make") Second, because, even if the leaders are willing to sacrifice seats to enact an agenda, that does not mean the occupants of those seats are. And as Lieberman taught the Democrats, a rebellious party member can easily cause serious problems. Even if the blue dogs did not jump form the party to save their seat, they could still refuse to vote the party line, and if that were to happen it could render the Democrat majority meaningless, as a majority which cannot ensure a majority of votes is not likely to enact much of their agenda.
And so, no matter how dogmatic the leadership, I fully expected them to be in the forefront of those Democrats pushing Obama aside. And, I was half right. Harry Reid has given every sign of being ready to split with Obama. As have many prominent Democrats and almost all of the blue dogs, especially those from the class of 2006. All told, the Democrats in congress give every sign of following my predictions quite closely.
With one shocking exception. Nancy Pelosi seems set on riding the Obama coat tails all the way to the minority leader's seat.
I had thought Pelosi would be the first to jump. True, she has a safe seat, and has no personal reason to abandon Obama, but she also has the shakier foundation. As congress faces reelection en masse every two years they are much more aware of public sentiment, so she has many more party members ready to abandon Obama. In addition, congress has many more insecure seats, seats taken from Republicans in 2006 or 2008 and which could easily go back to the opposition. Finally, within the party leadership itself her position is not that safe. She has faced challenges from right and left, and has had moments where her leadership was challenged by quite strong rivals. If she were to upset a significant number of the newer congressmen, and adopt a position inimical to the more moderate Democrats, it is quite plausible that she could lose her leadership position to one of her past rivals.
But despite all that, Pelosi is holding firm in her attachment to health care reform. And I am surprised. Even if she is dedicated to her doctrine, one does not reach a leadership position without being something of a realist. So I have to think she understands the price she is likely to pay. All of which makes me unable to comprehend what she is doing.