Posted by
Andrews on Monday, December 21, 2009 4:39:37 PM
I think it unlikely ObamaCare will make the Christmas deadline. And the reason is simple, the Democrats need every non-Republican vote to get cloture and bring it out of committee, and to do that they need to get the consent of moderate Democrats, pro-life Democrats, the single socialist and liberal Democrats. And while there is some possibility of compromise, I just don't think the ardent pro-choicers will be willing to make the concessions needed to bring in the pro-lifers and blue dogs, nor do I think the blue dogs will be willing to make the compromises needed to bring in the socialist, who will not be driven by party loyalty. The problem is, if they move too far right to give the blue dogs and pro-lifers (or more moderate pro-choicers, or those representing more pro-life districts) cover, then they will alienate the socialist and maybe some far left Democrats, but if they move left to bring them in, they lose the blue dogs. Nor does adding moderate Republicans change the equation. Appeasing them will alienate even more left-leaning Democrats, making the math work out just as badly.
In the end, I just don't think they can cobble together a bill which will satisfy the needs of 60 senators while still fulfilling the demands of the president, or coming anywhere close to resembling the abomination passed by the house. At best, I foresee a token medical reform bill, which, when reconciled with the house bill, will produce absolutely no results.
As I have said before, until 2010 provides a public referendum on Obama and ObamaCare, I don't think anyone is going to go out on a limb to push through ObamaCare, and with no one willing to take a risk, it just isn't passing the senate. So, for all intents and purposes, I believe ObamaCare is a dead issue this year and most of next.
Then again I thought McCain had a chance, so I can be wrong about things. However I really see no way this can be pushed through without someone taking a tremendous political risk. So, if ti does go through, it will likely do so at the expense of a Republican congress, which could quickly repeal anything passed, which means even a victory would be pyrrhic at best. And that is probably why no one is taking a risk on this, the knowledge that there is simply no way to win a lasting victory until the public peaks in 2010.
POSTSCRIPT
It figures, after I write this I discover that the bill was pushed through in the dead of night on Sunday. Ah, well, so much for my prognostications. At least we have the elections of 2010 to look forward to, considering the lack of public support, I would have to say the cloture vote was a bad move on the part of the Democrats, but time will tell.