I know I have been guilty of excessive optimism with regard to health care reform, thinking self interest would prevent the Democrats from committing suicide by passing this idiotic bill, but though I proved wrong on the degree of stupidity in the Democrat ranks, I still think there is a bright side to this bill.

You see, assuming the bill passes and the eventual reconciliation between the house and senate bill ends up looking like either bill, there is a big bright side, or rather there will be a tremendous downside, which will bring about good results.

And what is that?

The end of anything that can even vaguely be called an "Obama recovery". The minute this bill passes, or even seems likely to pass, insurers will start raising rates and cutting services to the greatest degree possible in order to gather the last profits they can before getting hit with senate requirements. (I know the insurers supposedly got a "sweetheart deal", but before long they are going to notice how badly they got worked over and are going to take defensive action.) Insurance prices will rise long before any mandates take effect.

Add to these rising rates the requirement to report on every employee concerning insurance coverage and the pressure for employers to provide insurance for every marginal employee, and we will see the first wave of massive layoffs and firings as companies eliminate employees whose productivity simply does not match the cost of insuring them, or even reporting on their insurance. Unemployment of 10% will likely seem a fond memory once this bill passes.

Of course, once the "penalties" phase kicks in this will create another interesting situation. All estimates, dishonest as they are, are based on unemployment numbers lower than today. With unemployment soaring thanks to the cost of reporting and insuring employees, the government will find its funds for subsidies woefully inadequate and will turn to printing new money, with predictable results. Prices will rise, employment will falls, growth will slow again, and pressure will gain to increase taxes, adding yet another drag on the economy.

So, how is this a good thing?

Well, it isn't. I don't relish living through the horrors I anticipate. But there is one bright side. Foolish as Americans may sometimes be, they are not usually idiots, as evidenced by the public dislike for the current health care reform plans. Once they see the economy tanking immediately following this bill's passage, they will not be bought off by excuses such as "Bush did it" or "it's the free market's fault." Nor will they buy the excuse that most provisions have not taken effect. A lot of Americans know a small business owner and will see how this bill hits those firms, and thanks to that will know precisely what caused the collapse.

Of course that could be a mixed blessing. As so many hopeful souls have pointed out, Carter's idiocies led to Reagan's election, and Clinton's bad ideas led to Newt and the class of 1994, but on the other hand, eventual exhaustion with FDR led to nothing more than Eisenhower's "me too" policies, LBJ led to Nixon, and the class of 1994 turned into the congressional Republicans we have today. So, yes, we could get a Reagan or Newt, but we could also get someone disappointing, who is nothing but a RINO elected in reaction to Obama's mistakes.

So, there is hope, but we need to make sure the Republicans know what we are hoping they will do. We need to make clear we want smaller government, a stepping away from "compassionate conservatism" and business as usual. Otherwise, this won't be 1980, but 2000, and, while Bush was a perfectly adequate president, he was far from a reformer, and that is what we need more than anything.

POSTSCRIPT

One thing I truly want to emphasize is something I have seen in few of the current crop of contenders, and that is Reagan's optimism. Reagan was not an angry man, rather than attack his opponents, he usually chuckled at them and told why his plan was better. He was not "anti-government" but "pro-individual". He told stories about what people could do when free to follow their dreams rather than criticizing how bad government was. Of course this is a generalization and not 100% accurate, but in general that was the impression he left, one of optimism, not criticism, and that is what we need.

That is also why I am currently critical of Sarah Palin. There are numerous reasons to be concerned about her, including the family baggage, but I think her biggest problem is that she has adopted the "attack dog" persona, which is fine for a candidate, but not very productive in a president.Jut look at Obama and his habit of always blaming the "mess he inherited". Do we want a Republican who does the same?

Then again, many of the alternatives are worse. Desperate to grasp at any hope, many Republicans have stretched the term "conservative" to the breaking point, using ti to describe moderates like Romney, big government types like Huckabee and others who fit quite poorly. What we need, more than anything else, is patience. Rather than grasping for the first vaguely conservative candidate who comes along, picking sides and drawing battle lines, what we need to do is wait, see who offers themselves up for 2012 and then truly vet them, try to find the real conservatives among the many who pay lip service. Only then might we find someone who can truly repair some of the harm of the last 20 years.

POSTSCRIPT II

One person must be more happy about this bill than anyone else. And that is Jimmy Carter. After all, come 2012 he will no longer be our worst living former president. And when people look about for an example of incompetence they won't affect a southern accent and mumble "malaise", instead they will puff themselves up, look condescending and preach about hope and change.