Posted by
Andrews on Monday, March 22, 2010 7:42:55 AM
I think for the moment I will wait to comment on ObamaCare. There are several reasons to do so.
First, the senate still has to pass the "fixes" in order to "repair" the bill, so the "passage", though surprisingly suicidal, does not mean the bill has actually passed, but only that it cleared one hurdle, that being that house Democrats were willing to fall on their swords to save the Big Zero's ego.
Second, even if it passes, the bill was written to have "savings". It does that by taxing immediately, but only providing benefits starting in 2013. That way it is "cost effective", by paying for 6 years of services with 10 years of taxes. Of course, it becomes a drain not a surplus after those 10 years, but by then no one in power will be in office, or at least the voters won't recall who saddle them with this dog of a bill. However, there is a benefit in this, as no one will get any benefit from the bill until 2013, which means any repeal effort prior to that will be without an entrenched pool of beneficiaries. It will be, in effect, repealing a tax, which is much easier.
Third, 2010 will change everything. Having told America they are too stupid to know what they want, that they need to lie down and take what the Windy City Messiah gives them, as he knows best, congress is likely to have a different face in 2010. And the presidency in 2012. And let us not forget that Pelosi may have fallen on her sword too. Her efforts to "save the party" may have doomed the party, but may have done wonders for Stenny Hoyer's career, as I see him as speaker in 2011. At least he didn't strong arm the members to pass a bill beneficial to no one but the president and with tremendous cost to the party. (Or, if he did, he was careful not to become the public face of those tactics.)
For these reasons and more, I am reluctant to give any interpretation of events. I admit I was wrong in evaluating the self-interest of house republicans. Yes, many did act as I predicted, but they managed to intimidate or bribe enough into suicidal actions. We still have to see the senate's response, though, being generally more secure in their seats, it is likely they will vote with the house. But only time will tell.
POSTSCRIPT
While I may have overestimated the ability of house members to recognize clear messages from the voters, or maybe their ability to comprehend the consequences of their actions, I do stand by my estimation of voter reactions. I have no problem predicting bad times for the Democrats this November, very bad times. After Bush, Obama, McCain and the house sweep of 2006, they have done more to revitalize both the Republican Party and conservatism in general than anyone else. Funny, had they had a less ambitious agenda, they might have managed to push the Republicans left, as seemed likely in late 2008, but instead, by pushing a very radical agenda, they restored the public support for the opposition. Amazing how much the Democrats live up their own beliefs. They claim fighting terrorists create terrorists (which I doubt), well their partisan battle definitely revived their opposition.