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Infanticide

Whatever your position on the abortion issue, I think we can all agree that an entity which can survive, on its own, outside of the womb, with no care other than food and warmth no longer qualifies as a "fetus" or "just a bunch of tissue". I would like to think I can rely on those on both sides of this issue to stop short of endorsing infanticide.

Unfortunately, I also have to say that, back when Senator Obama took stands on issues other than "hope" and "change", he came out in favor of a right to kill infants. Not that he termed it so. He said he was "in favor of the right to choose" and wanted to protect "the rights" of "mothers and doctors". But what he was endorsing was infanticide.

No, I am not engaging in hyperbole and discussing late term abortions, or partial birth abortion. I am speaking quite literally of infanticide.

The law Obama opposed was the Illinois version of Born Alive Infant Protection Act, which stated that a child born alive, whether intentionally or as the result of a failed abortion, was entitled to the same protections as any living human. The national BAIPA, on which this law was based, arose because, in some cases, babies were accidentally delivered alive during abortion attempts and then left to die from exposure.

I think even the most ardent supporter of "a right to choose" can agree that leaving out a living healthy baby to die of exposure goes far beyond anything covered by "a mother's right to choose" or "reproductive freedom". There is no way to say the child is "a clump of cells" or "a baby who would not survive on its own". These were real live babies anyone would recognize as a living, breathing human being. But, just because the mother had wanted an abortion, and because these babies were too small to survive without warmth, these infants were left alone and allowed to die.
 
This was not "a medical procedure" or any sort of "choice". In these cases, actual infanticide was taking place, which is why the BAIPA was passed federally and in several states. It was why even ardent supporters of abortion in the congress voted for the act. There are few who are willing to say a mother can end the life of her offspring once those offspring are outside the womb and breathing. Most abortion supporters do not endorse a right to infanticide.

Most, but not all. Among those states which had a BAIPA effort, but in which the law did not pass, was the state of Illinois, and the reason the law did not pass was the ardent opposition of then state senator Obama.

Now, of course, Obama seems to have developed amnesia about this issue. He does not promote his 100% NARAL rating, nor does he say much about his position on "reproductive choice." Sticking to his content free campaign script, he doesn't champion the right to commit infanticide.

But he once did.

So, when someone tells you, as so many Republicans do lately, that you can sit out the election, as Obama and Hillary are "too weak" to do much harm during four years, or because we "need to suffer through another Democrat" or because "McCain is just like the Democrats", realize that one possible outcome is to place in the White House this proponent of actual, literal infanticide. And then tell me again how he can't do any harm, or how McCain is no better than Obama.

I know I said I would stop making this argument, but I just can't. With so many otherwise sensible people ready to hand this nation to people like Obama, I just cannot keep quiet.

UPDATED 03/30/2008

When I wrote this I forgot to include any citations. I have a bad habit of cleaning up old files, so I no longer have any good records, but I did stumble across a World Net Daily column on the same topic. It isn't a factual, unbiased report, being a commentary, but it does cite several sources, so it will have to do for the moment. It also provides some first hand testimony form someone present during the debates, so it is quite interesting in that regard as well.

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Breaking My Promise

I know I said I was going to stop writing about McCain for a while, but I really feel the need to go at it one last time.

Again and again, I see Republicans saying they want a Democrat to win because McCain will mean "the death of conservatism" and the Democrats are "too weak" or "too stupid" to do any harm.

I beg to differ on both counts.

First, on McCain. Yes, he is far form an ideal candidate, and he is far from a right-wing Republican, but he is still more conservative than the alternatives. And, as I have said before, at least with McCain the right will have some voice in government, as opposed to a Hillary or Obama administration. Also, as I pointed out earlier, McCain will find himself moving right, if only to shore up his prospect in November. He may still be too left for some, but as long as conservative votes are in play (that is, as long as we don't promise to sit it out) then he will end up wooing conservatives and moving himself to the right.

Now, to address the big mistake: The concept that Hillary and Obama can't do much harm.

Who is less competent that James Earl Carter Jr.? If you want to define incompetence, you just point to this man. He seems a sure bet for a weak politician who could do no harm. Yet, he did more harm than we care to admit.

Do you ever worry about a nuclear Iran? Well, blame President Carter. When the revolution took place, Carter abandoned our ally the Shah, allowed the revolution to continue, gave the revolutionaries a feeling of power by letting them hold hostages, and then made them even more confident by botching a rescue. All of this brought about by a man we would think too incompetent to do harm.

Do you hate $100/barrel gasoline? Well, yes, Nixon is largely to blame, due to price controls, but Carter did everything he could to make it worse. When OPEC began to bully the US, rather than start domestic exploration, liberalizing environmental laws to increase production, or some other muscular strategy designed to worry and weaken OPEC, Carter talked about setting the thermostat lower, putting on a sweater, and started tossing around the word "malaise".

And that's not all. The Savings and Loan collapse? The recession in the early 1980's? Hyperinflation throughout the late 1970's? The loss of the Panama Canal? Concessions to the USSR? Setting the stage for Soviet  aggression throughout the 1980's? Bowing to the Sandinistas* and other communist movements in the Americas?

Well, all of those things came from an incompetent, weak president. We are still, over twenty years later, suffering from one four year term of an incompetent president.

So, please, go ahead and sit this out if you don't mind seeing Obama of Hillary hand Afghanistan to Iran, hand Iraq to al Qaida, allow Israel to be dismembered by Hammas, allow Syria to dominate Lebanon again, hand Taiwan to China, raise top marginal taxes back above 50%, enact environmental legislation that will cripple us for another two decades, reintroduce us to REAL inflation and unemployment,  and install supreme court justices who will ruin the nation for another 30 years or more.

Yes, McCain may do some harm, but I just don't see him doing anything nearly as harmful as what Obama or Hillary will do.

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* For those following my ongoing war with my browser spell-checker, I will add another strange oversight. While recognizing an endless list of political groups, for some reason "Sandinistas" causes my browser to complain, though "Sandinista" does not. So, it will accept the word "facer", but not "Sandinista" when made plural? It is actually worse than useless. (It also engages in strange multicultural quirks, such as not accepting cliche without the accent, but that does not explain the "Sandinistas" problem, as, in Spanish, the plural of "Sandinista" is "Sandinistas". So it is now wrong in two languages.)

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Negative Campaigning

Twice now I have had Obamaniacs post comments* on my blog saying, among other things, that Obama is not "engaging in negative campaigning". And thinking back, I see this often a refrain from Democrats in particular, that they are "taking the high road" and "not fighting dirty".

After I thought about it for a while, I developed a theory that the only people prone to say such things are those who have a lot they wish to conceal. In Obama's case, it is nothing criminal or immoral, it is just the fact that he does not want the independents, upon whose votes his presidential hopes rest, to know just how liberal and inexperienced he is. So, of course he complains when Hillary criticizes him, and says he wants to keep "negative campaigning" out of the primaries, because he knows that nothing he can say about his opponent will hurt her as much as she can hurt him.**

Actually, that seems to be the general rule, from Obama to Kerry and on and on. Every time I have heard someone say they wanted to keep the campaign "clean" and avoid "negative campaigning" it was a sure sign that they had no hope of finding as many negatives about their rival as their rival could find about them.

So, please, no more posts about "negative ads". Avoiding negative ads is not a moral stance, it is a tactic from a politician with too much baggage to hide.

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* I am a bit sad that I only attracted two Obamaniacs. The lack of vitriol directed at me makes me think I am not doing my job.

** As I noted below, Obama's opposition to "negative campaigning" does not stop his followers from tossing out racial slurs, either. (And, yes, I DID cite the Puffington Host. It happened to be the first source I found after I lost my original link. Also, if I am trying to convince liberals that Obama isn't quite the noble champion they imagine, maybe citing a liberal source will help my case.)

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Copyright as Politics

I am always fascinated when I find a perfect example of a political principle in some other field. For example, P.J. O'Rourke wrote a very amusing essay once on how G-d is a Republican and Santa Claus is a Democrat. I don't find them often, but from time to time I find something that perfectly illustrates a political point. In this case, the area of copyrights.

Now, I am quite unhappy with the present state of copyright and patent law, and agree that there is a need for some significant reform, but that is not my topic. (For those interested, I found some interesting writing on software patent reform. I don't entirely agree with the author, but it is an interesting piece.)

No, what I find fascinating is the copyright war that has been raging for the last decade among the members of the free software community.

For those who aren't computer programming geeks (a group to which I belong off and on), I will give you a brief summary.

Free software is, as the name suggests, software that is offered free of charge. Some also argue that to be "free" the author or distributor must also provide the original source code. So, just to avoid any conflict over trivialities, I will define "free" as code which is provided free of charge and with the source code included or available upon request.

Among those who write free software, there are two differing types of copyright schemes, the Berkley copyright and the GPL . There are a lot of slight variations on both, and a few other minor schemes, but 99% of free software copyrights can be described as either variants of the Berkley copyright or variants of the GPL. So, let me explain those two schemes.

The GPL (Gnu Public License) copyright was developed by the Free Software Foundation. As this group believes that computer code should not be copyrighted and should be freely available, they incorporated this into their copyright. The copyright has two basic features. First, that anyone distributing a program developed from or using GPL code must provide the source code as well. Second, any program developed from or using GPL software must itself by copyrighted using the GPL. Critics (and even some supporters) often call this a "viral" license, as once any GPL code has been used, any subsequent products must also be licensed using GPL.

The Berkley license was developed to facilitate the distribution of the Berkley version of Unix (the predecessor of all those Unix version ending in "BSD"). The terms are pretty simple. Any code developed using Berkley licensed software must contain the same copyright attribution (eg. "Copyright 1980 by the Regents of Univ. of California"), and that's it. Derivative products can be licensed using the Berkley copyright, the GPL, a restrictive commercial copyright, anything. There are absolutely no restrictions  on the terms under which the software can be used except that proper credit must be given to the original author.*

So, those are the two copyright schemes, and the conflict between those who use one and those who use the other has been raging in the geek world for a long time. At the moment, the GPL seems to be winning out, as its adherents are more fanatical and doctrinaire (think Obamania and you get the right idea). They also have the advantage of having converted a few developers of quite popular software (sort of "celebrity support") and have won over a few large corporations that are involved in the free software movement.

So, how does this relate to politics?

Well, the two copyright schemes appear to me to be perfect analogies to the liberal and conservative world views. The GPL is based on a dogma, the idea that copyright must be eliminated, and it takes all kinds of steps to ensure that no one can ever use a copyright if touching that code. The Berkley license, on the other hand, simply offers code for free and leaves it to the recipient to decide how to use it.

In short, GPL is liberal, claiming to know what is "right" and forcing everyone to go along. Berkley is conservative, saying "I am offering this code for free, do with it what you will", and trusting the recipient knows what he wants to do with it.

I know the GPL supporters** will disagree with this, as many consider themselves "libertarians", but they truly are not. By claiming to know better than others what should be done, by writing copyright so as to force everyone to subscribe to their view of right and wrong, and generally by adopting an arrogant attitude that, but for their benevolent actions, the world would continue along its benighted course to doom, they show all the attitudes responsible for liberal policies.

As I have said before
, liberalism is, at the most basic level, an expression of arrogance. And I think this GPL v. Berkley conflict shows yet another face of the same conflict. Some are willing to trust their fellows to do right, some want to force their ideas on everyone else. That is the line which divides conservatives from liberals.

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* There is one modification that has arisen recently. In the case of BSD, as the code developed over several decades the list of attributions grew to such a point that the first five or six screens shown while loading some versions of Unix were all attributions. As the attribution requirement could obviously lead to absurd results over time, some versions of the Berkley license require only that attribution be made in code or documentation, not necessarily on screen. It doesn't really change the issues about which I am writing, but I thought I should recognize this development.

** For the record, in my free time, at least what is left over when I am done with work, family, blogging and fiction, I do write software for fun. At the moment I am toying with a compiler for a new language derived from forth, but with a much smaller memory footprint and a reduced command set. Anyway, when and if that software is finished, I plan to release it under the Berkley license. Also, what development I have done for existing projects was done for the FreeBSD project (though never included in the distribution as they placed a lower priority on ATA-2 compliance than other issues), so I obviously support the Berkley side in this dispute. Just to reveal any biases I may have had before writing this essay.

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That Fishing Quote

I am sure you have all heard it, so say it along with me:

Give a man a fish, he eats for a day
Teach a man to fish, he eats for a lifetime.

I know conservatives love to say they fit the second clause, and want to "teach men to fish", but I think neither should really be the goal of conservatives. The second too readily provides a justification for all those liberal education and job training plans that are really just expensive boondoggles.

So, I propose a third line:

Build a cannery next door, and a man will teach himself to fish.

THAT should be the conservative mantra. Don't give, don't teach, just pursue your own interests, as the result will be to create opportunities for those who want them. When rich men build stores, they don't stand behind the counters, those jobs are now available for several others, jobs which were not there before. That should be the sort of opportunity creation conservatives should back, not this "teaching to fish".

So, please, stop giving AND teaching. Just pursue your own good and you will help enough along the way.

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Last Ditch Effort

Earlier I wrote about the reasons I think neither Democrat nominee will have a chance to win the general election. My main thesis was this, that Obama will lose his fanatic supporters if he takes a stand on issues, and he will not be able to win the middle if he doesn't, and Hilary will not be able to win as the Obama supporters will sit it out if he doesn't get the nod. All of which leads me to ask the question: What if Hillary gets the nod and picks Obama as her VP?

Of course, I don't actually see it happening. Hillary is vindictive in the extreme, and unlikely to mend fences with a former rival. Nor does Obama really help her, as she has been crafting a more moderate image, and adding Obama will push her again to the left, which she has been trying to avoid. Lastly, Obama will steal her thunder, being far more popular than she is, and I doubt she would want to be shown up by her VP.

But if we assume that it happened, what would be the outcome?

Strangely, not much different from my original assessment. Even if Obama is on the ticket, I don't see his voters coming to the polls. They were invested, very deeply invested, in seeing Obama as president, I just don't think they can maintain that fever pitch over voting their man in as VP. Nor do I think it would motivate them to vote that Hillary is on the top of the ticket. Many Obama supporters are fervent in their Obama support precisely because they dislike Hillary, so even brining in Obama as a VP will not win over those votes.

In fact, if anything, offering Obama as VP may hurt Hillary's bottom line. As he has, a so far unrecognized, far left record, he will make Hillary appear to be more left wing than she desires. Also, his relatively strong anti-war tendencies will undercut Hillary's attempts to portray herself as a moderate hawk. So, bringing him in will serve only to destroy whatever inroads Hillary has made with the moderates.

Thus, while from time to time I see it proposed by well meaning liberals, I think that Hillary would be a fool to bring on Obama as her VP, should she be nominated. He would lose her the moderate image she has tried to craft, and at the same time he would  fail to bring with him the support he enjoyed during the campaign. In other words, with him she stands to lose everything, yet gains very, very little.

So, even matched up against a two-headed Clinton-Obama beast, I still see nothing but victory in the future for McCain.

CORRECTION 03/05/2008

I forgot this was "The Co-Presidency Take Two". So it would not be a two-headed Clinton-Obama beast, but a three-headed Clinton-Obama-Clinton beast, like Ghidorah.

UPDATED 03/05/2008

I wrote this during the day while my very liberal mother was off warping the minds of yet another generation. (By which I mean she was off working as an elementary school teacher.) However, speaking to her this evening while watching the news, she gave interesting confirmation of my thesis.

My mother is one of those buying into Obama's content-free campaign, though I think more because she despises Hillary than because of anything Obama is doing. She may like Obama for one of those many ill-defined reasons liberals "like" candidates, but she is not one of those who seem to have an absolute crush on the fellow.

Anyway, while were watching Jim Lehrer (her choice, not mine) she asked if I was happy that McCain won. I explained my half-hearted support for the fellow, and then she surprised me by confirming what I wrote above. "If she wins", my mother said about Hillary, "I think I'm voting for McCain."

Now, if a life-long member of the bleeding heart league like my mother is thinking of crossing over should Hillary win the nomination, I am even more certain that the woman has no chance of winning.

Of course, I don't think Obama has a chance either, but I don't have that sort of confirmation from a representative independent yet. Once I get that, I will be sure to let everyone know.

(If any relatives read this, that first line was a joke. I have quite a bit of confidence in my mother's teaching ability. After all, she has been doing it for forty years, she even taught me, so I know she is quite good at it. But face it, my opening line is much more amusing than an honest description would be.)

UPDATED (AGAIN) 03/05/2008


Once again, the Obamaniacs speak. This time, rather than a moderate Obama supporter like my mother, I got a comment from a full-fledged Obamaniac. See the comment here. From the anger directed at Hillary in the post, I am even more strongly convinced that Obama's wing of the party will never fall in behind Hillary.

It is an interesting development. The Democrats (post 1968) were strong precisely because of their "winning at all costs" policy. Unlike the Republican "circular firing squad", the Democrats always closed ranks, no matter how much they hated their nominee, and pulled together. But now, for the first time in at least four decades, if Hillary is nominated, we will see a divided Democrat Party.

As I said in an earlier post, it is turning out to be a much more interesting election than I expected.


UPDATED 03/06/2008

After yet another Obama supporter wrote criticizing Hillary Clinton for "going negative", I have to say that I have absolutely no doubt the Democrats will be a deeply divided party should Hillary win the nomination. There is no longer any doubt in my mind.

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The State Versus Universities

I was reading some comments and ran across a statement that "The GI Bill paid for itself many times over".

At first, this seemed rather stupid. The GI Bill brought in no money at all. It was a wealth transfer from the tax payers to the universities and nothing more. There is no way it could have conceivably paid for itself, as it was never meant to be a money earning venture.

Of course the poster had nothing of the sort in his mind. Instead he was engaging in a standard liberal tactic of distorting a normal word, using a fuzzy definition to make it seem one thing happened when another did. He meant something along the lines of this: "By allowing so many to go to college, the GI Bill raised earnings in the US, making all of us wealthier and thus "paid" for itself many times over." Ignoring for the moment that this use of "paid" is quite different form the one used by everyone else on earth, the question remains whether or not the rest of his claim is true. Did the GI Bill (and other college-favoring schemes, such as student loans) make us wealthier? Are they even a good idea?

First, let us just get past the obvious complaints with student loans, GI Bill and other financial aid schemes. It has been said over and over, and seems to be well known among most who follow such news, that whenever student loan caps increase, tuition increases by a similar amount. The same applies to a lesser degree to targeted aid, such as the GI Bill. In other words, when the government provides money for tuition, the colleges absorb that money and still charge the students what they would have before. So, in reality, aid does not help offset the costs of college, but represents nothing more than a transfer of wealth from tax payers to the universities.

However, let us ignore that for a moment, and postulate that university subsidies do work as advertised. Do they do any good? Did the GI Bill make the US wealthier and our population better educated?

Well, let us look at something completely different for an answer. At the moment, Rolls Royce produces a fine car, well crafted and outrageously expensive. But let us assume the state decides to fund a "Rolls Royce for Vets" program. They pay 99% of the purchase of a Rolls Royce for every veteran who wants one. What would happen?

Well, Rolls Royce cannot supply that kind of demand at the moment. Used to a demand of maybe 10,000 per year, they now get 1,000,000. So, how do they cope? They lower standards, cut corners, and start turning out a car comparable to a Honda or Ford, rather than a Rolls Royce. Oh, standards may rise a little as they get used to the demand, but not much. And why should they? If the buyers paid the full cost, they would demand high quality. As they are paying only 1%, there is no reason for them to complain. They are still getting much more for their money than they should.

And that is what happened with the universities. For, while they pretend to be "above material concerns" universities are businesses like any other. When all that GI Bill money became available, the universities lined up to receive it. Where, before, the high costs meant they could be very selective, the new funding meant they had a larger pool, but also that they needed to lower admissions standards. And if they wanted to get all 4 years worth of money, they also had to retain those students, so they lowered the grading standards as well.

Now, I am not saying vets were dumber than the general public, just that if you admit 10,000 you have to be less selective than when you admit 100. And, with the huge volume of GIs, each carrying a check from Uncle Sam, the universities were eager to let in every last one. So, inevitably, standards declined, and declined rapidly.

The results are all around us. Where, in the 1930's a bachelor's degree was relatively unusual, and qualified one for management, today a bachelor's is almost what a high school diploma once was, and qualifies one for only the lowest of entry level positions. By diluting standards in pursuit of money, the colleges have reduced the worth of the diploma. And, as a corollary, we have entered an age where we expect everyone to attend college, making a bachelor's degree not a certificate of accomplishment, but a bare minimum for employment.

In short, by throwing money at education, the government did not make everyone wealthier and better educated. Instead they diluted the worth of the college diploma, and only managed to make education a longer and more costly process, with four years of college providing less education than high school once did. Which should have been obvious to anyone who thought about it for some time. But, sadly, when it comes to "good deeds", such as giving people "access to college", thought is a rare commodity, and good feelings win out.

If ever we manage to destroy this nation it will probably not be due to war or dictatorship or revolution, more likely it will be due to one too many governmental good deeds.

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In the Hands of the Superdelegates

It is funny, but the Democrats, the "party of the people", of the little guy, of the average Joe, has managed to revive the smoke-filled backroom, the brokered convention, and the selection of nominees by the upper echelons of the party.

Thanks to a very close race, even with Hillary's wins yesterday, the numbers appear to promise no one a clear victory. Barring a concession, or dramatically (read "impossibly") large victories in the remaining primaries, the nomination will rest in the hands of the "superdelegates" (read "party elite"). So, the party of the people will be left with the nominee that the long-standing party insiders decide to support.

But I am sure more than one pundit will be hammering on that little irony, so let us move on to something more interesting. I am still trying to figure out which way the party insiders will decide to vote. In other words, I am still trying to decide who McCain will beat in November.

As I have said, I am certain McCain will win against either possible nominee, so my interest is pretty much academic at this point. I don't think either has a hope of winning the general election, barring some unexpected event, or some horrible skeleton in McCain's closet. And, while I can't rule out some unexpected event in the world changing the course of history, I can pretty much exclude any "October surprise" being sprung on McCain. After all, the fellow has served for over two decades, has run for president before, and has been despised by many conservatives and commentators since at least his championing of campaign finance reform, if not before. If there were any deep dark secrets in McCain's past, they would be out by now. There are plenty of people who would have loved to reveal anything negative about the man, making their continued silence pretty convincing proof that any scandals in McCain's past are either known (Keating Five) or are completely unimportant (the recent NYT hit-piece). All of which continues to convince me that a McCain presidency is pretty much a given.

So, though it doesn't matter much, who will McCain be defeating for the next few months?

One side of me wants to believe that Obama is a sure thing. The signs seem to be there. He still has the majority of committed delegates, he has had a few superdelegates defect to his side from the Hillary camp, and he has a good case that he is "the people's choice." As the superdelegates don't want to appear to be vetoing the voters, it would be easy for them to vote for Obama. In addition, there is all the media hype, and the Obamania, and the superdelegates are not immune. I am sure there are some superdelegates who are secretly writing school-girl crush letters to Obama in their spare time. Such enthusiasms have a way of spreading, but there is also the fact that many, seeing the support given by others, want to be on the winning side, and so jump on the bandwagon simply from fear of being left behind. So, Obamania may not only drive those who have fallen in love with Obama, but may also drag along those who feel a bit more lukewarm.

On the other hand, I am sure there are people in the party who are a bit frightened by Obamania. As I said yesterday, I see some signs that the more sober party members may be a bit worried. Due to all the adoration Obama has received, he may not have been properly vetted and may prove a weaker candidate than he appears. If I am thinking this, I am sure some politically savvy Democrats are as well. And, now that the race is tight once again, they may take that as a chance to switch to Hillary. After all, if the race is close, with momentum shifting to Hillary, they can risk voting against Obama in a bid to save the party from itself. Of course, as I said yesterday, such a move will likely fracture the party, but they may be willing to endure a short-term defection by the Obama loyalists in order to avoid nominating a very weak contender.

It is hard to decide which factor will prove stronger, the pressure to appear to be following the will of the voters or the impulse to save the party from an excessive enthusiasm. I suppose it all depends on two factors. If Hillary can continue to win primaries until the convention, and provided the media does not place too much pressure on the party to make superdelegates "follow the will of the people", I think it probable that the superdelegates may give a very weak win to Hillary. On the other hand, if Hillary stumbles, or the press dives in and starts opposing any superdelegate veto of the popular numbers, I doubt the superdelegates will be brave enough to stage a coup.

So, at this moment, it all depends on the press staying on the sidelines and on Hillary's ability to continue winning. As I have no way to know if either will continue, at this moment, I can't say what will happen at convention time.

Well, I will go out on a limb and predict that McCain will get the Republican nomination, Nader will lose the general election, and Ron Paul supporters will continue to annoy everyone for some time to come, but other than those daring predictions, I can offer no more guidance concerning the course the primaries will take.

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Two Perspectives

I was thinking again about the events which the media insists on calling the housing "crisis", and it occurred to me that often the media generates a crisis situation by the simple expedient of looking at only one side of things. Sometimes, if we adopt a more balanced perspective we will see that a "bad" event is really much more beneficial.

Take, for example, the drop in real estate prices. To the media this has been a horrible thing, robbing homeowners of their equity, harming those trapped in ARMs, forcing banks to close home equity lines. On the other hand, let us look at it from the perspective of someone who has not yet bought a home. In my area, it appears prices rose 60% to 80% in the past 8 years, while wages rose nowhere near that much. The fact that prices have now dropped around 10% from their peak last year likely means that a new home is now within reach of more buyers. So, while it is a bad thing for the sellers, the drop in prices is a benefit for the prospective buyer. (Of course, for those selling one home to buy another, it may be a wash, unless the two housing markets differ greatly.)

Let us take another facet of the so-called crisis, the tightening of loans. To the media, again, this is just an unmitigated disaster. Those who could get loans previously now cannot, or they have to pay much higher rates, or maintain greater equity in the home. Of course, that is only one side of the story. If we look at the money not as loans, but as money invested by various shareholders, bank account holders, and others, we draw different conclusions. Previously, those banks were lending to risky borrowers at a rate too low to compensate for the risk. In essence they were risking the investors' money while not paying them adequately. Now, making less risky loans, they are once again properly balancing risk and return. So, while it may be bad for borrowers, for the bank account holder, or someone with a bank stock in their 401K, this is a positive development.

It is not just in the housing "crisis" that this one-sided reporting occurs. Let us look at just one other example.

We often hear about how bankruptcy laws have been "tightened to "favor lenders". Not only is that a very one sided view, but it is quite mistaken. We will leave aside the fact, as with the loans mentioned above, that the money loaned out most often belongs, not to the company, but to private investors, which means liberal bankruptcy laws hurt 401Ks and pensions more than "rich industrialists". Even ignoring that, it is impossible to say tight bankruptcy laws favor "companies" but hurt borrowers.

Think about it this way. You have money to lend. If you have the ability to compel repayment, and can make a fair return, you will likely lend all or most of it at a fair rate to good risks. On the other hand, if you may be forced to forgive some or all of the debt, you will more likely simply keep your money, rather than lend it, or lend it only to the best possible risks. Nor are you likely to be quite as generous with your funds. If you are able to recover every dime, you may charge a relatively low rate of interest, but should you be required to accept losing some of the money you lend, you will clearly only continue lending if the return, that is the interest you can charge, is substantially higher.

By making it impossible to collect, liberal bankruptcy laws make it harder for borrowers, especially those with less than perfect credit, or with no credit record, to find lenders. (By limiting the profit on loans, caps on interest rates do the same thing.) Rather than "favoring lenders" liberal bankruptcy laws actually hurt borrowers, who find it harder to obtain credit, and more expensive to get a loan when they do find a lender. By taking only the side of the specific, defaulting borrower, we ignore the harm done to the remaining borrowers and potential borrowers.

I could go on and on with these examples, but I think I have said enough. A few examples should suffice to show the general principle: Whenever someone explains how a particular policy hurts or helps someone, or decries this or that crisis, look away from the person at whom they point, look at the bystanders, and see if there may be some others who see the issue quite differently.

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Bill Clinton Murdered Leon Trotsky!

Now I am sure someone out there will poke a few holes in my theory. Someone will point out that former President Clinton was born six years after Trotsky died for example. But I am sure someone out there read my title, nodded his head, and added it to his list of conspiracy theories.

There is nothing so outlandish that someone doesn't buy it. That 9/11 was an inside job? Thousands buy it. That JFK was killed by the CIA? Yes. By the mafia? By Johnson? By Comintern? Of course! By aliens? By Elvis? By Nazi clones of Hitler? By Jim Morrison? I am sure someone out there believes all of those too. As I said, nothing is so nutty that it won't be believed by someone out there.

But I have now found the absolute hands down winner for nutty conspiracy theories.

This site claims that GEORGE BUSH SENIOR KILLED JFK!

And not only is it mad, but it is pretty shoddy even by conspiracy theory standards. I am quite a fan of truly loony conspiracy sites, and this one just does not measure up.

Then again, you have to admire the outright chutzpah of the author. He claims that a letter from Hoover to George Bush of the CIA MUST be to George Bush Senior. Confronted with evidence that there was ANOTHER George Bush who actually worked for the CIA, he mumbles something about the other Bush being "too unimportant", throws in a slur intended to portray Hoover as gay, and presses on.

That sort of response takes nerve. "Contradictory evidence! Who cares? Hoover was a drag queen! Oh, and what evidence?" It is a bold move. Not a convincing one, but sometimes you have to admire the brazenness of an act, even if you admire nothing else.

Well, read it for yourself, it provides some interesting insight into the depths to which Bush Derangement Syndrome can drive someone.

ADDENDUM

As soon as I posted this, I recalled an even better conspiracy theory. Now, it is drawn from fiction, so I am not sure whether it was meant to be taken seriously or not. Then again, as the author claimed at the time to be talking to G-d, via the spirit of a 1st century Christian, I think he may have been serious.

In several of Phillip K. Dick's later works, he postulates that Nixon somehow orchestrated the assassinations of JFK, RFK, Martin Luther King, Bishop Pike and George Lincoln Rockwell, all so a second-string politician like him could get elected. (At least that is how I read it. Dick could be a bit cryptic at times, so I may have some of it wrong.)

But, even if I missed some of the nuances, that still has to be the greatest tinfoil hat theory ever. Who else ever tried to link JFK and Rockwell? Or turned Bishop Pike's death into an assassination, so it could be linked to the others? The whole thing is just beautifully deranged.

I suppose, compared to that, the idea that President Bush killed JFK is a bit less impressive.

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Why McCain Will Win

Having just written about some of the problems with Obama, I think it is time to explain why I am certain that McCain will win.

Yes, I know I am going way out on a limb. It is well known that pundits never call an election, as they will look like fools if the race goes against them, but I am not a pundit, and I feel no need to hedge my bets to preserve an image. If future events prove me wrong, then so be it. Things may change in the next few months, McCain may be found out to be the secret grandmaster of some evil cabal out to rule the earth, or G-d almighty could endorse Obama (though I somehow doubt it). But, as things stand at the moment, I feel quite confident saying McCain will win in November.

Here is my reasoning:

As I have said here, here, and here, Obama's massive appeal depends on him taking either no stand, or every possible stand, so that his followers can project their own opinions upon him. That will not work with the independents. So, Obama will at last be forced to take a stand. Whether he takes a far left stand, to appeal to the bulk of his devout followers (and sacrifices many centrists) or moves to the center, it will not matter. Once he has taken a stand, he ceases to be that charismatic mirror, his followers fall out of love, and we are left with just another left-leaning candidate. His chances are slim once he has to appeal to anyone outside of the Democrat base.

Hillary has a little better chance. She may not be the master of triangulation that Bill was, but she has been setting herself up as a moderate hawk on the war on terror and has been showing a less far left face to the public. She has a real chance of pulling some of the center into her camp come the general election. On the other hand, if she defeats Obama she will face something Democrats have not experienced since 1968, a fractured Democrat party. The Democrats have always been great at closing party ranks after a primary, but I don't think they will this time if Obama loses. Robbed of their messianic figure, I doubt the Obamaniacs will go over to Hillary, it is far more likely they will sit this out. With only a portion of the Democrats, and some segment of the independents, I just don't see Hillary gathering the electors she needs. So, Hillary too has little hope of victory.

Of course, McCain has one big negative, the nascent Republican insurrection. Many conservatives have come out and sworn never to vote for McCain, which could help to offset the Democrat votes I predict Hillary will lose. Except for one thing. While Hillary cannot win back the Obama votes, I think McCain has a real chance to win back some of those Republican votes. A strong move to the right will doubtless win over many of those now opposing him because of his liberal record, as would a good pick for vice president. Of course, some hard core voters will doubtless refuse to vote no matter what, but, unlike the huge number of Obamaniacs who would reject Hillary, I think the die hard McCain haters are loud, but small in number. Yes, there are Republicans who would never vote for him, but, compared to the Obamaniacs who would never vote for Hillary, they are a very small group.

All of which leads me to the conclusion that in 2009 we will see the inauguration of President McCain. Not something about which I am particularly thrilled, but it is better than the alternatives we have at the moment.

Then again, the future is unknowable. Something could arise between now and November that no one foresaw, so take my prediction with a huge grain of salt.

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Off-Topic Note: Earlier I complained about my browser's spell check software complaining about the very real word "indices" while accepting the fictional word "indexes" without complaint. Now it has done something even more peculiar, it missed a typo. In one of the sentences above I ended up writing "facer" and the browser spell check accepted it. I know it misses all the times I accidentally write "tot he" as "tot" and "he" are words, but "facer"? What on earth is a "facer" that my spell checker doesn't bat an electronic eye at such a word? I am beginning to lose all faith in automated spell-checking.


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Are The Democrats Worried About Obama?

I have been seeing more and more news reports about the Democrats, and their unofficial mouthpieces in the media, beginning to "get tough" with Senator Obama. I have not been watching as many Sunday morning talking head shows as usual, but it appears that the usual softball questions and Obama love fest have been replaced with actual substantive questions and even some criticism.

All of which makes me think that some Democrats have reached the same conclusion I did some time ago. I think the powers that be among the Democrats, or at least some of them, have taken a hard look at their presumptive nominee and started to worry. They see that Obama is a bit too far left to appeal to the independents, and that any move he makes to "triangulate" for those votes in the center will destroy his messianic image among his most devoted followers, as that adoration depends almost entirely on him never taking a firm stand.

As Obama's only choices are to continue to lead a personality cult that will never appeal to more than 25% or 30% of the public at most, or trying to disavow an unabashedly liberal record to gain some small percentage of the center, I think the Democrats have realized that Hillary is actually more electable than Obama. And so, regretting their earlier decision to toss her aside in favor of the "charismatic" flavor of the moment, I think the Democrats, or some faction within the party, is trying to deflate Obama early, to give Hillary a final chance to win the nomination.

Since the alternative to deflating the Obama candidacy now is to let McCain do so in August or September, this may actually be the smartest move open to the Democrats. Then again, Obamania is still running strong as well, so it may backfire. Those Democrats who have realized what an empty suit they are nominating may be doing what they think is in the best interest of the party, but it is very likely that those idolizing Obama will see it as treachery and turn on those party members with the most realistic and sensible perspective on the election.

It will be interesting to watch what happens. Just as the left has been predicting a Republican fracture between McCain supporting "compromisers" and "hard-core conservatives",* I predict that there may be a Democratic Party fracture between the Obamaniacs and the realists who are trying to derail him at the last moment.

Whatever happens, it will certainly not be a dull election.

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* Actually, as McCain begins to realize his need for support on the right, he may move even more strongly to the right and head off any such fracture, or at least reduce the harm done. On the other hand, I don't see any way to keep the Democrats from having a major division if my prediction proves correct. The Obama supporters are just too ardent, and take the issue too personally, for any perceived "treason" to be smoothed over. Should any higher party members appear to push for Hillary, the cost for them will be quite high among Obama supporters. In fact, this has already started with criticism being leveled at black politicians who have supported Clinton over Obama.
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UPDATED 03/06/2008


In the comments I promised reader Kuna (apparently a fan of Obama) that I would supply a link to the Best of the Web article which mentioned Obama's supporters calling Clinton's black superdelegates "Uncle Toms". I did not find the Best of the Web link as their new archiving policy (there is none) makes that hard. But I found this article on the Huff'n'Puff Post.

So, yes, Obama may be "staying above the fray" and "not engaging in negative campaigning", but his followers certainly are not.

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Personal Update

After a three year hiatus (roughly matching the very busy first three years of my son's life), the fiction writing bug has bitten me once more, which means that the posts here may slow down a bit.

As I can't write fiction while working, reading news and pontificating on the items I find is still going to fill my days, but I doubt I will be making that many 2 AM posts for the next few months.

Don't worry, I will still write the two remaining essays of the three I promised, and I am sure I will continue to follow and comment on the election, I just wanted to let my handful of regulars know that the posts may become a little less frequent, and they may be a bit shorter. But they will continue.

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One More Obama Update

I don't want to seem like I am beating up on Senator Obama, but I had to mention this.

The left seems to be obsessed with Obama's claim to be different, not like "other politicians".

So, why did an Obama staffer tell the Candanian ambassador that if Obama beats up on NAFTA it is just "campaign rhetoric"? Does that sound like a new kind of honest politician?

Or is it just another Democrat hack saying whatever it takes to get elected?

I know no one believes me, but this guy will not see the inside of the White House unless he takes a tour.


UPDATED 02/29/2008

I am sure someone will reply with something along the lines of "but so is McCain", so let me explain.

Yes, McCain is just another politician, saying what he needs to to get elected, but we know that. Republicans voting for McCain are either doing so because they consider him electable, or because they hope to move him to the right, or, in a few cases, because they actually agree with him.

Obama's supporters are different. They are true believers. As soon as they find out their untainted hero is just as dirty and imperfect as the rest they will be crushed. It will be the end of their Obama dream and they will not recover.

That is why I never worried about the Obamania. It takes very little to turn such enthusiasm to disappointment.

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Medical Regulations

As promised, I have finally written my examination of regulation in the medical field, and the reason I think some non-government alternatives will prove, not only every bit as safe, but less costly to consumers, and will also allow for some other beneficial outcomes.

Let me start by saying I know I have an uphill battle here. The practice of medicine, as well as the manufacture and distribution of pharmaceuticals, have been regulated for a very long time. Regulation of medicine (along with food) was one of the very first regulatory endeavors, and the licensing of doctors was one of the earliest regulatory measures adopted by many states (banks may have come first some places, but medicine was almost as early). So, not only have we all grown up with medical regulation, but so did our parents and even our grandparents, it has the advantage of age. And, as most things that have been done for a very long time, most of us have come to see it as natural, to assume that the way things have always been done is the natural way to do them.

While normally I am all for preserving traditions, and agree that things that have worked for a very long time have a good case for not being changed, in this case I have to go against my natural inclinations. The regulation of drugs and doctors is not a natural state of affairs. In fact, both practices arose based upon deceptions, and have continued, in some degree, as they are beneficial to the groups regulated.

Just like any business regulation which restricts entry, the licensing of doctors serves, like the licensing of hairdressers or electricians, to raise the salaries of those licensed. Of course, as any group benefiting from restrictions on entry, the doctors (and electricians and hair dressers, too) say the barriers are needed to preserve quality, and some may even think that is true, but that is not the primary outcome. Now it is impossible to make any generalizations, as regulation is done at the state level, meaning we have 50 different histories, but some of the earliest medical licensing rules were passed not so much to protect patients as to protect doctors from unlicensed competition. At a time when doctors prescribed often lethal purgatives, calling a licensed doctor more safe than an herbalist or an apothecary is a bit of stretch. The laws were not intended to make patients safe but to prevent amateurs from competing with the doctors. It was intended to keep the world safe for purgatives.

Nor does the regulation of pharmaceutical (and food) have any better pedigree. Yes, the Pure Food and Drug Act was passed after a series of very public problems*, and it was passed with the best of intentions, but one of the main forces pushing it was the muckraking writing of Upton Sinclair. As anyone who has read The Jungle with an appreciation for history can tell you, Upton Sinclair was far from an honest journalist. Allowing laws to be passed based on the word of Sinclair is akin to passing laws based on the films of Michael Moore. The man was a first rate agitator with only a passing acquaintance with the truth. Had the food and drug industry been as bad as he depicted I would still argue federal intervention was not the best approach, but as he simply fabricated many of the abuses he "reported", it was even less necessary. (Of course, Sinclair was clever enough to call his work fiction, then only hint that it was based on truths, all the while adding his won fabrications. It gave him a nice out if anyone ever called him on his excesses. Sadly none ever did, he was taken at his word by most readers at the time, and even now. I still recall classes where The Jungle was presented as an accurate historical document.)

Of course, just because they were born from deception does not mean that the regulation of drugs and the practice of medicine should be eliminated. Yes, medical licensing may have been intended to prevent competition and drug regulation may have been brought about by false muck raking journalists, but that does not mean they serve no purpose now. So, next, I will try to show you how they manage to stifle innovation, raise costs for consumers, insulate practitioners (which may be one of the reasons that the tort crisis began),  and generally act against the interest of consumers. Even in the area of safety, the one area in which most accept that they are reasonably successful, I will try to show you that there are viable alternatives which do far less harm.

Let us look at the harm done by regulation step by step:

1. Limiting Choice

A. Drugs

In the area of drugs, the way that the FDA limits choices has been well documented, as well as being obvious to anyone who examines the subject. Before a drug can be legally sold it must undergo a lengthy, costly review process. Leaving aside whether or not this review process actually adds to the safety of the drug, and ignoring for the moment the way arbitrary factors can derail this process and keep safe and effective drugs off the market, let us look at the effect that just the costs of the process, in terms of time and money, has.

We often hear of "orphan drugs" which have too low a profit margin to make it worthwhile to go through the approval process, and, yes, that is one cost of this process, but ti is not the only one. Think about this hypothetical situation: A drug has been developed which will cure a fatal, highly contagious disease, but, before a consumer can buy it, it must go through the multi-year process to show it is safe and effective. Now, let us look at that and think. Obviously, if the developer thinks it is worth going through the process, the researcher has conducted his own tests to show that it cures this condition. In addition, as it cures a fatal disease, I doubt those who would take it would care if there are side effects or not, as the alternative is certain death. So, why on earth should we allow people to continue dying for years before this drug can be put into the hands of those who need it?

I know that some of these complaints have been addressed by the government. There is a lessening of requirements for "orphan drugs" and there are "compassionate" exemptions for those with certain diseases allowing them to get experimental drugs, but that just raises other questions. For example, if the process can be safely ignored for these specific drugs, why do we need it for others? If we admit that someone dying can get experimental drugs, why not someone who is in chronic pain? Most pain sufferers would happily accept side effects to be relieved of chronic pain. In short, by waiving the testing requirements for certain drugs, and allowing certain patients to get certain drugs without FDA approval, the FDA actually makes me question what use there is in the process at all.

Of course, the long and costly process is not the only problem. There are many more.

For example, there are the perverse incentives inherent in all bureaucratic work. While profit seeking enterprises have inherent systems which reward profit and encourage successful risk taking, bureaucracy tends to encourage excessive caution and inertia, neither of which is conducive to improving our health. Let us think of the bureaucrat who has final say over a drug. If he approves a drug which later kills people, or has some other unforeseen but headline grabbing side effect his career is over. On the other hand, as no one has ever heard of this drug, if he prevents it from being approved, no one will care except the manufacturer. Of course, it may be the drug that would have prevented thousands of deaths, but no one knows about that, the potential benefit is unseen, so he gets no blame for those deaths, the way he would be blamed for any mishap should he approve the drug. In other words, it is far safer for him to deny even safe and effective drugs than it is for him to approve anything with even the most remote possibility of a problem.

Nor does the harm done by the conservative nature of bureaucracy stop there. Think of the endless mandated warning labels, overstating greatly even the most remote risk. Yes, some are placed by drug companies hoping to dodge the tort lawyers, but many more are mandated by the FDA. Supposedly warning of every conceivable harm will make people better informed and keep them safe. What we do not see, and which is probably more harmful, are those who are prescribed a drug, yet, afetr reading the warning labels and their lurid exaggeration of the risks, refuse to take a needed medication. Again, if a label were missing, the FDA would shoulder the blame, but they get no blame for those who die due to being scared off by excessive labels. So it is in the interest of the FDA bureaucrats to place as many warnings as possible, in the most excessive language possible, as that is the easiest way for them to avoid any blame.

And so, you may be asking, how does this limit choice? The answer should be obvious. Faced with all of these hurdles and difficulties, the possibility of a drug earning too little to cover the costs of approval, the likelihood of a drug being rejected, and the possibility even an effective drug will be burdened with so many warnings no doctor will prescribe it and no patient will take it**, many drug companies simply ignore certain types of research which they otherwise would pursue. And even where they do conduct research, they often ignore certain discoveries as they simply are not worth the trouble of shepherding through the FDA approval process. And, finally, even when the drug company does take the risk, the FDA often simply rejects drugs which the companies would happily sell, and consumer happily buy, despite the risks.

In other words, the FDA makes unavailable many, many drugs which both the manufacturer and the consumer would prefer to be on the market.

B. Doctors

In the case of medical licensing, the limiting of choice is much more obvious. By limiting medical practice to those approved by the state boards, it is obvious that the law is intended to limit choice. Of course most think that this is a good thing, but I would argue otherwise.

For example, let us suppose that someone who has worked as a medic in the military or an EMT in civilian life wants to set up a small clinic. He could easily treat small scrapes, bruises, even splint sprains and immobilize broken bones, perhaps even set clean breaks, given the equipment to identify which breaks require more intervention. Obviously, not being burdened with the costs of medical school, and with a more modest practice, his services would cost less than a traditional doctor, making such a minor first aid clinic an ideal low cost alternative for poorer areas. But, as you can imagine, such an alternative could never exist, as the man would be arrested for practicing medicine without a license.

Another way in which the current system limits choice is in its internal discipline system. Now, I know that it takes quite a bit to have a license pulled, but the fact that a license can be pulled does, in itself, introduce an incentive not to go too far from medical orthodoxy. Doctors are far from a uniform lot, but there still are certain common assumptions, and those who stray too far from the accepted beliefs do risk losing their license.

Please, do not read into this the idea that I think there is any conspiracy to hush up fantastic discoveries. By and large, what the medical establishment considers standard practice is backed up by the best scientific knowledge of the present time, and almost all of those who deviate far enough to lose their licenses are quacks with absurd theories. My point is that even practices based on the best scientific findings can be wrong, and that at times even scientists can be blinded by personal bias, and be unwilling to listen to proofs which overturn what they have always believed, so it is possible, even if unlikely, that a true revolutionary discovery could be dismissed, and its proponent could lose his license, being dismissed along with the army of quacks. This would not be an issue if licensing were not mandatory, as they could continue fighting without the approval of the medical establishment, but, with mandatory licensing there always exists the possibility that a true novel discovery may be lost.

Again, I do not want to say this is likely or is happening now. As I said, quacks outnumber geniuses many thousands, or hundreds of thousands, to one. But to lose even one genius can be a significant loss. Yes, it is unlikely. Yes, we would have to have a discovery that overturns accepted medical practice and a medical establishment unwilling to listen. Yes this is likely to happen very rarely. But even then, do we want to risk that? Would we like to have laws that let us ignore our next Newton, Flemming, or Einstein? Even if it is highly unlikely, why adopt a system which raises that possibility, unless the system has huge benefits? As I hope to show, I do not think the current system has benefits great enough to justify such a risk, even if the risk is remote***.

2. Stifling Innovation

The section above actually touched on this. The stifling FDA process obviously reduces the willingness of drug companies to put money into innovation. Also, as I stated above, there is the possibility that the licensing system for doctors may stifle those innovations which are sufficiently unusual.

As I described above, licensing and regulation is inherently conservative, and the area of medicine is especially prone to conservative positions, as regulators' primary task is to prevent harm. If we are concerned first with not allowing any changes which may cause harm, we will end up preventing a number of beneficial changes as well. As there are few things which give benefit without any harm, if we prevent all harm, we also end up preventing a lot of good, and we tend to move toward stagnation.

3. Raising Costs

Obviously, if the pool of people providing a service is artificially restricted, they will able to charge more for their service. This is the primary reason why people already practicing a profession lobby for restrictions on entry. It was behind the medieval guilds, it is behind the professional licenses of today, and it is behind medical licensing. Of course, it is always justified as helping public safety, rather than as allowing members to charge more, as no one would support restrictions on entry if the true motives were stated, but the primary purpose of any bar to entry is always to raise salaries. I cannot prove it in the case of doctors, but centuries of examples show that bars to entry were always based on self-interest, even the early medical licensing laws were often patently written to elevate salaries, so I find it hard to believe the doctors of today are the one group motivated solely by public good, without a single ounce of self interest.

Oh, of course, many doctors never think about licensing, and buy into the PR about the public good. When I say support for licensing is motivated by self-interest, I am speaking of those who lobby actively to maintain licenses, the politically active doctors who strongly and actively support the medical licensing laws. In their case, they are well aware of the benefits licensing confers on income and I have no reason to think that the fact that licensing inevitably elevates salaries has no impact on their thinking.

In respect to drugs, the laws are not as obviously self-serving, but they are every bit as costly to consumers. Clearly, the expensive drug approval process, as well as the costs of the thousands of drugs which get rejected, serve to elevate the costs of medicines, but that is not all. The prescription laws serve to reduce the demand for drugs by limiting access. As any economist can tell you, mass production tends to reduce costs, so by artificially reducing the pool of those who have the legal right to purchase drugs we force the drug companies to forgo some of the benefits provided by economies of scale, as well as some of the innovations that usually arise from increased demand.

4. Insulating  the Practitioner

There is a problem inherent in allowing any profession to police itself, whether we talk about the police, lawyers, or doctors, and that is the public perception that the profession will stand together. It may be true in some cases, it may not, but the public perception is that members will look out for the interests of the profession rather than the public.

This is particularly bad in the case of medical grievance procedures, as the state board is usually a monolithic entity. The licensing board and the grievance board (whatever their local names) are both made up entirely of doctors, sometimes even with overlapping membership, giving the public a perception that there is little use in pursuing any official grievance procedures.

In some ways, the fact that many states actually leave it up to doctors to police themselves, many even leaving it up to panels of doctors to decide whether a grievance should be investigated, may be one of the reasons for the growth in civil malpractice claims against the medical profession. If the normal processes for addressing complaints are closed, it is often easier to take the complaint outside of that profession to a jury made up of laymen. Of course, once the suits began, the lawyers smelled money and many of the least admirable sort descended on the doctors and caused the current explosion of medical torts, but I think, to a degree, the shortcomings of self-policing may have fed into the early malpractice claims.

Having shown, or so I hope, that the system we have now does cause harm to the consumer, I will try to show that the supposed safety benefits that justify those costs are not as great as we believe, and, even if they were, the same benefits could be gained through alternate means, without any of the associated costs.

One of the most common claims for our current licensing scheme is that patients do not know enough to judge doctors on their own. We also hear that the licensing process keeps out completely unqualified doctors. I cannot attest to the "completely unqualified", but I do have to say the second claim seems pretty dubious, as I have met many quite incompetent doctors who had obtained and kept a license for many years. So I think we can safely assume that our present system, like any system, cannot, on its own, ensure that any given doctor will not be incompetent, lazy, disagreeable, or otherwise unpleasant or dangerous. No matter how difficult the test, no matter how frequently the licenses are renewed, no matter how often a doctor is retested, humans are changeable beings, and between one renewal and the next, a formerly brilliant doctor can turn into a dangerous loon. There is just no way licensing can protect us against those who, voluntarily or involuntarily, offer us substandard services At best, his license can be swiftly revoked once the problems become clear, but that still does not help to protect those first few patients. No system can do that.

Since licensing cannot protect us from incompetence, let us instead look at the first claim, that patients know too little to effectively choose a doctor without licensing.

On the face of it, this argument is silly. Most people do not know enough to repair a car or select a computer on their own either. Few diners know the intricacies of being a chef. Every day we make hundreds of choices in areas in which we possess incomplete knowledge at best. How do we do it? Maybe we ask friends for advice, or we read reviews, or check Consumer Reports. Perhaps we ask the salesman, or we look at a private ratings or certifying body. If nothing else, sometimes we ask the person offering the service for his certification or for references and testimonials. In some way or another, we manage to figure out, despite our lack of knowlege, which person provides us with the best service for the price.

Why should medicine be any different?

Why would we be any less safe if, rather than a single government licensing body, we had a number of private competing certifying bodies? A doctor could be licensed by one or more of these bodies, and patients could choose their physician based upon which, if any, certifications he has. In that way, should a doctor disagree with the philosophy of one group, he would not be barred form practicing altogether, but could apply to an alternate group for certification. Likewise, if a patient truly believes some quack cure will work, that patient is not legally barred from doing what he thinks best, he can legally throw his money away on quackery if he so desires. Lastly, those who have some medical knowledge, but failing to meet the requirements of any certifying body, can still practice, they simply need to inform patients that they are not certified. If a patient still thinks a skilled amateur can provide the service he needs, the patient is free to use this amateur.

Obviously, private certification will help to resolve the first three issues listed above. With multiple certifying bodies, there will be no group stifling innovation or limiting choices. With greater freedom of access, costs will surely decline as well****. Of course, the number of medical practitioners will probably not increase immediately, but some very simple care, which probably should not require a medical degree anyway, will probably be taken over by uncertified amateurs, reducing costs for the consumers. Likewise, some of those who are skilled enough to practice but, for whatever reason chose not to obtain traditional licensing may enter the market, reducing costs farther. It is hard to predict what will follow that, as the market tends to react to needs in unexpected ways. All I can say is that I am sure that whatever follows will be less costly than what we have now.

But what about the problem of self policing and the flight into torts which I claim was a result? Obviously, this is one of the few areas where private certification is not a panacea. Without a single licensing body, we also lack a single grievance board. In fact, private certification may actually lead to an increase in suits. On the other hand, with competing certifying bodies, those bodies are also interested in consumer confidence. While a state licensing board will always have their job by force of law, a private certifier only matters as long as people have confidence in the certification. So, revoking certification of those who do not live up to standards will be a high priority. Over time, this may lead to consumers placing more trust in the grievance processes within the various certifying bodies. So, in the end, private certification may be of benefit here as well.

Having dealt with doctors, what about drugs?

Well, the answer there comes in two parts.

First, I would simply eliminate the FDA. Perhaps in an age of "caveat emptor" and law suits weighted to favor the seller some could make a case for the need to  regulate food and drugs. (I still think it is useless, but the case would have been better then.) In our present age of rampant tort abuse and vehemently anti-corporate juries, is there any company which would knowingly sell dangerous food or drugs? I am certain that the internal reviews of most companies provide for better testing than the FDA requires, if only to provide a defense against the inevitable lawsuit. Given that, why do we need to government to defend us? Against what? The companies themselves have no motive to sell substandard products. We are a rich country, and we appreciate quality, a company will do better selling top notch viagra rather than trying to make a quick buck selling mislabeled sugar pills. So against what is the FDA defending us?

Besides removing the FDA approval process, or perhaps doing away with the FDA entirely, I would also eliminate prescriptions and the laws relating to them. I know this sounds drastic, and I may end up having to write an essay on that alone, as it also would mean ending our war on drugs (when you can buy morphine OTC, why keep heroin illegal?), but I can see no reason for preventing people from buying any and all drugs over the counter.

The first argument for denying access to drugs is that they are dangerous, but that holds little water. Many, many dangerous chemicals can be had without going to prescription drugs. If it is a fear of drug abuse, illegal drugs are so readily available that eliminating prescription requirements would not really increase the supply significantly. If it is a worry about accidental overdose, that is possible with OTC drugs as well, so I don't see why some are prescription and some are not. And if it is a worry about intentional harm, there are more than enough poisons available in auto shops and garden centers to make prescription drugs irrelevant.

Another argument is that laymen would abuse drugs and do harm, such as creating antibiotic resistant diseases. My response is MRSA. Antibiotics have been tightly controlled for several decades, yet with only doctors dispensing them we still have created a resistant strain of staph. Which means that doctors can misuse prescription drugs as well as any layman, making this argument a lot weaker in my mind.

Lastly people will argue that individuals have bad reactions to prescription drugs so they should be doled out by a doctor. Two arguments go against this. First, people can have fatal reactions to things other medicine, such as peanuts and shrimp, yet we do not restrict access to those. Second, in most cases doctors do not test before prescribing a drug, so they know nothing about your potential reaction until you actually take the drug. In other words, they prescribe, then, if you have a reaction, you go back to the doctor. If there were no prescription involved, you would simply buy the medicine, and, if you had a bad reaction, would go see the doctor. I don't see how the initial prescription improves this situation.

So, if there are no good arguments for prescriptions, what arguments are there to eliminate them? Rather than rehash what I have said before, I will ask you follow this link and read the update at the bottom, it tells my own story of how prescription drug laws (along with DEA audits and frightened doctors) made my life miserable. It is just one anecdotal tale, but it illustrates well how putting artificial restrictions in place gives some people powers they should not have and prevents others from receiving medications they need.

Well, I have said a lot, yet I don't know if I have really made my case or not. I feel that I have probably ended up over emphasizing parts I should have left alone and have left out, or spent too little time on, points I should have dwelt upon. Still, I did promise that I would explain my thoughts on medical deregulation sometime this week. Unfortunately, work kept interrupting and so I am not sure if it came out the way I had hoped.

But rather than become obsessed with it, spending hours reading over this and rewriting it, I will just publish this as is, and leave it up to my readers to pick it apart. I am sure I left enough holes to inspire a few comments. Perhaps in replying to the comments I will find out where the weak points are, and I can finally turn this into the essay I hoped to write.

In any case, that is it. I hope I have convinced someone that our present system is not a logical outcome, but simply a historical accident, but if not, I at least hope I entertained my readers for a few minutes.

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* Then again, the most famous of drug-related cases, the Massengill ethylene glycol poisoning took place in the 1930's, long after regulation had been established, making me question if regulation truly provides that much of a safety advantage over an unregulated market.

** If you think my emphasis on warnings is excessive consider this story I heard in college. A friend's father was a chemist who developed a new non-toxic bug repellent. The FDA found it (mostly) safe and effective, but in tests a small percentage developed a harmless, short-lived rash. It was then mandated that this must be clearly stated on the label. As my friend obviously favored her father's side, I think she left out some details, perhaps some heated words between her father and the regulators, as the requested label sounds a bit excessively prominent, almost as if, after an argument, the regulators decided to make the requirements a bit more onerous for a difficult man, but I can't be sure. Whatever the case, the company which was to manufacture the repellent thought the warning, at the required size and wording, would make marketing impossible and refused to proceed. It is not exactly the cure for cancer, but still, we were denied a possibly superior bug repellent because of FDA labeling requirements.

*** Should anyone think I worry excessively about a remote risk, I would argue that people get worked up even more over the possibility that one innocent man might be executed for every million murderers, and blocking the work of a genius has far more widespread harm than killing of a single innocent man. We are lucky if we get one genius per generation in a given field. As a true genius tends to cause massive changes that take decades to be appreciated, or even longer, to lose one is to lose years of progress. And, without the work of this genius upon which to build, the next has to start that much behind. Yes, it is rare, but the cost is very high. By stifling truly innovative changes, even if it encourages incremental changes, central, mandatory licensing and regulation tends to slow progress drastically. (Notice how much of our progress in medicine is not in medical theories, but in pharmaceutical and electronic imaging, where progress in other fields has bled over into medicine. In terms of changing approaches, new models of disease, new theories of the human body, medicine has not progressed as swiftly as other fields have.)

*** All of this assumes some kind of tort reform is enacted. We are currently burdened with rather absurd assumptions about standards of care and other elements of malpractice. Even were we not to eliminate medical licensing, I would be all for tort reform. However, if we eliminate mandatory licensing, reform becomes even more important. Then again, as the traditional lines dividing doctors, nurses and lay people break down under my proposals, it is likely that malpractice laws could be applied to far more people. If enough average people are subject to malpractice suits, tort reform may be enacted by popular demand. So perhaps the changes I propose would actually drive tort reform, rather than having to follow it.

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UPDATED 02/29/2008

I must correct myself, there has been one rather large innovation in medicine. The discovery of prions, self-replicating proteins (according to one hypothesis) which are not alive but still capable of self-replication, is an innovation in medical thought which occurred in recent times. And, perhaps if I were to think about it more, I would discover one or two other purely medical innovations. Still, I stand by my original statement that regulation is the enemy of innovation, and most innovation in medicine in recent times has come from other fields such as imaging and pharmaceuticals.

Pharmaceuticals, on the other hand, while regulated, remain profitable enough for research to continue. On the other hand, as we are still heavily regulated, I am sure that the pace of pharmaceutical research has been reduced from what it would be without the FDA. Unfortunately, as our heavily regulated industry is still the most free in the world, I have no other system against which to test that belief. So, I can only argue by analogy, and say that in every other industry, when regulation increases innovation decreases.

Leading me to wonder what marvels of chemistry we would now have if the FDA would just get out of the way.
 
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